Potential effect of the marine carbon cycle on the multiple equilibria window of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element in the Earth system due to possible multiple (stable) equilibria. Here, we investigate the multiple equilibria window of the AMOC within a coupled ocean circulation–carbon cycle box model. We show that adding couplings between the ocean circulation and the carbon cycle model affects the multiple equilibria window of the AMOC. Increasing the total carbon content of the system widens the multiple equilibria window of the AMOC, since higher-atmospheric pCO2 values are accompanied by stronger freshwater forcing over the Atlantic Ocean. The important mechanisms behind the increase in the multiple equilibria window are the balance between the riverine source and the sediment sink of carbon and the sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater forcing over the Atlantic Ocean. Our results suggest that changes in the marine carbon cycle can influence AMOC stability in future climates.