Risk of hepatic decompensation or HCC is similar in patients with ALD- and MASLD-cirrhosis: A population-based cohort study

Abstract

Background: It is unclear if the risk of hepatic decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) differs between patients with compensated alcohol-related liver disease (ALD)- and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)-cirrhosis. We investigated the risk to develop hepatic decompensation or HCC based on ALD or MASLD as the underlying etiology of cirrhosis. Methods: All patients with a new diagnosis in hospital-based outpatient care of ALD- or MASLD-cirrhosis in Sweden between 2002 and 2020 were identified using national registers. Hepatic decompensation was analyzed as a composite outcome with HCC. Cox regression was employed to compare rates of hepatic decompensation or HCC, and subsequent death. Results: 1660 patients with ALD-cirrhosis and 943 patients with MASLD-cirrhosis were identified. The median ages were 64 years (IQR 57–70) and 69 years (IQR 62–75) in patients with ALD- and MASLD-cirrhosis, respectively. Patients with ALD-cirrhosis consisted of 69.4 % males, compared to 47.6 % males in the MASLD-cirrhosis group. 581 (35 %) patients with ALD-cirrhosis and 284 (30 %) patients with MASLD-cirrhosis developed hepatic decompensation or HCC (median follow-up time: 25 months), resulting in an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.12 (ALD- vs. MASLD-cirrhosis, 95 %-confidence interval=0.88–1.41). The adjusted risk of mortality afterwards was lower in patients with ALD-cirrhosis compared to patients with MASLD-cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio 0.62, 95 %-confidence interval=0.39–0.97). Conclusions: The risk of hepatic decompensation or HCC is comparable in patients with ALD- and MASLD-cirrhosis, but the risk of mortality after a decompensation event or HCC tends to be higher in patients with MASLD-cirrhosis.