A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Pandemic: The 1977 “Russian flu”

Abstract

Surprisingly, the 1977 “Russian flu” H1N1 pandemic influenza virus was genetically indistinguishable from strains that had circulated decades earlier but had gone extinct in 1957. This essay puts forward the most plausible chronology to explain the reemergence of the 1977 H1N1 pandemic virus: (1) in January–February 1976, a self-limited small outbreak of a swine H1N1 influenza virus occurred among Army personnel at Fort Dix, New Jersey; (2) in March 1976, the US launched a nationwide H1N1 swine influenza vaccine program; (3) other countries then also launched their own H1N1 R&D efforts; (4) a new H1N1 outbreak, genetically unrelated to the Fort Dix swine virus but indistinguishable from previously extinct H1N1 viruses, was detected early in 1977 in China; (5) the leading Chinese influenza virologist later disclosed that the Chinese military had conducted large H1N1 vaccine R&D studies in 1976. It is likely that the resurrected H1N1 influenza viruses were laboratory-stored strains that were unfrozen and studied as part of the emergency response to a perceived epidemic threat, and that accidentally escaped. The fear of a possible H1N1 pandemic was the critical factor that gave rise to the actual H1N1 pandemic, resulting in an avoidable “self-fulfilling prophecy pandemic.”