Infrastructure investment planning through scenario-based system-of-systems modelling

Abstract

The socioeconomic, technological, and environmental needs and developments call for effective infrastructure investment planning. Because infrastructures are interdependent, this requires the entanglement of their demand and performance development. We propose a scenario-based system-of-systems model to support strategic decision-makers in evaluating the effects of planned investments on transport infrastructure demand and performance under different plausible futures and identifying required investments across transport infrastructure sectors considering interdependencies. The model estimates freight and passenger demand and their consequent emission and energy performance for rail, road, and waterway networks. Through a case study, we show how the model can assist decision-makers in tracing the effects of silo-based planned investments on interconnected infrastructures. Moreover, the case demonstrates how possible investments can be detected to ensure desirable infrastructure performance. Finally, it presents how a better understanding can be created about the impacts of transport demand and energy transition policies on the performance of infrastructure system-of-systems.