A Structural Credit Risk Model with Jumps Based on Uncertainty Theory

Abstract

This study, within the framework of uncertainty theory, employs an uncertain differential equation with jumps to model the asset value process of a company, establishing a structured model of uncertain credit risk that incorporates jumps. This model is applied to the pricing of two types of credit derivatives, yielding pricing formulas for corporate zero-coupon bonds and Credit Default Swap (CDS). Through numerical analysis, we examine the impact of asset value volatility and jump magnitude on corporate default uncertainty, as well as the influence of jump magnitude on the pricing of zero-coupon bonds and CDS. The results indicate that an increase in volatility levels significantly enhances default uncertainty, and an expansion in the magnitude of negative jumps not only directly elevates default risk but also leads to a significant increase in the value of zero-coupon bonds and the price of CDS through a risk premium adjustment mechanism. Therefore, when assessing corporate default risk and pricing credit derivatives, the disturbance of asset value jumps must be considered a crucial factor.