The Evil Enemy: Belief in Conspiracy Theories Predicts Attitudes to War

Abstract

Political leaders often justify war with conspiracy theories. How effective are such conspiracy theories in gathering public support for war? The present research has investigated the effects of conspiracy theories on people's war-related attitudes. Studies 1 and 2 were two-wave panel studies showing that conspiracy theories about Ukraine and its allies (e.g., the United States) predicted increased support for the Russian invasion over time, as well as a range of other war-related attitudes (e.g., increased identification with Russia; less favourable attitudes towards Ukraine; decreased military and humanitarian support for Ukraine; decreased support for sanctions). Study 3 replicated these findings among citizens of four different nations in the context of the war in Gaza (e.g., conspiracy beliefs about the Israeli government predicted increased support for the 7 October Hamas attacks over time). Study 4, then, showed that experimentally exposing participants to a conspiracy theory about Ukraine increased their support for the Russian invasion. Study 5 replicated these experimental findings in a fictitious setting uncontaminated by participants’ prior beliefs. Study 5 also provided evidence for a mediating role of perceived outgroup threat. We conclude that conspiracy theories can shape people's attitudes to war.