An Adaptive Prediction Framework of Ship Fuel Consumption for Dynamic Maritime Energy Management

Abstract

Accurate prediction of fuel consumption is critical for achieving efficient and low-carbon ship operations. However, the variability of the marine environment introduces significant challenges, as it leads to dynamic changes in monitoring data, complicating real-time and precise fuel consumption prediction. To address this issue, the authors proposed an incremental learning-based prediction framework to enhance adaptability to temporal dependencies in fuel consumption data. The framework dynamically adjusts a dual adaption mechanism for input features and target labels while incorporating rolling retraining to enable continuous model updates. The effectiveness of the proposed approach was validated using a real-world dataset from an LPG carrier, where it was benchmarked against conventional machine learning models, including Random Forest (RF), Linear Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach could significantly improve prediction accuracy in both offline and online scenarios. In offline mode, the proposed framework improves the R2 of various machine learning models by at least 21.97%. In online mode, the proposed method increases R2 by at least 17.97%. This work provides a new solution for real-time fuel consumption prediction in dynamic marine environments.