Modeling of global and regional climate response to solar radiation management

Abstract

Global warming climate changes are observed in recent decades. These changes largely associated with anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The problem and opportunity of the global climate stabilization at a current level by means of geoengineering methods are investigated. The study is based on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic global climate coupled model, including ocean model with real depths and continents configuration, sea ice evolution model and energy and moisture balance atmosphere model. The climate prediction calculations up to the year 2100, using different CO 2 growth scenario are carried out on the first stage. A series of numerical experiments were carried out to assess the possibility of climate stabilization at the level of the year 2010 by controlling emissions into the stratosphere of aerosol, reflecting a part of the incoming solar radiation. Evolution and sedimentation equation for sulphur aerosol mass calculation is considered. A uniform and zonal stratospheric aerosol space distribution was investigated. It is shown that by this way it is impossible to achieve the space and seasonal uniform approximation to the existing climate, although it is possible significantly reduce the greenhouse warming effect. The Pareto optimal frontier was investigated and visualized for two parameters - atmospheric temperature MSD for the winter and summer seasons. The author was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (projects no. No.16-01-0466, No.17-01-00693).