Design and analysis of numerical experiments

Abstract

Methods are presented for the design and analysis of numerical experiments that are especially useful and efficient in multidimensional parameter spaces. The analysis method, which is similar to kriging in the spatial analysis literature, fits a statistical model to the output of the numerical model. As an example, the method is applied to a fully nonlinear, global, equivalent-barotropic dynamical model. The statistical model also provides estimates of the uncertainty of predicted numerical model output, which can provide guidance on where in the parameter space to conduct further experiments, if necessary. The method can provide major improvements in the efficiency with which numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted. -from Authors