Flood-affected homes in England lose value and are owned longer than those in unaffected areas

Abstract

Flooding is one of the costliest weather-related disasters. In a warmer, wetter world, future flood events are expected to become more frequent and severe. Previous research shows that flooding devalues property in England, but the effect on length of home ownership is unexplored. We analysed 27 million residential property sales over 28 years in England to examine how flood zoning, nearby flooding, or inundation affected ownership length and property values. We find that flooded properties typically lose 3% of their value immediately, rising to a 10% reduction after 15 years. This aggregate £5.6 billion loss persists because floods are not forgotten, suggesting the market has moved beyond amnesia-driven rebound effects towards sustained repricing of flood risk. Moreover, flood-affected properties are owned on average for a decade longer than those in unaffected areas, especially among lower-priced homes. Our results have implications beyond England for housing markets, mortgage lending and insurers.