Evaluation of ECMWF IFS-AER (CAMS) operational forecasts during cycle 41r1-46r1 with calibrated ceilometer profiles over Germany

Abstract

Aerosol forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System aerosol module (IFS-AER) for the years 2016-2019 (cycles 41r1-46r1) are compared to vertical profiles of particle backscatter from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) ceilometer network. The system has been developed in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and its precursors. The focus of this article is to evaluate the realism of the vertical aerosol distribution from 0.4 to 8 km above ground, coded in the shape, bias and temporal variation of the profiles. The common physical quantity, the attenuated backscatter classCombining double low line"inline-formula- is directly measured and calculated from the model mass mixing ratios of the different particle types using the model's inherent aerosol microphysical properties Pearson correlation coefficients of daily average simulated and observed vertical profiles between classCombining double low line"inline-formulaCombining double low line0.60.8 in summer and 0.7-0.95 in winter indicate that most of the vertical structure is captured. It is governed by larger .