Risk assessment of shunting derailment based on coupling

Abstract

Shunting operation is risky and complex because of the nonlinear coupling effect of personnel, equipment, environment and management, which reflects symmetry, can easily cause shunting derailment accidents. Traditional railway safety risk assessment techniques seldom consider the nonlinear coupling relationships of hazard factors in the shunting process,. The Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and Analytic Network Process (ANP), which are applicable to the coupling analysis of complex systems, have been used in many areas to overcome this shortcoming. Thus, this paper built a hybrid model, developed by integratingDEMATEL andANP methodologies, to determine the multifarious interdependencies' relative strengths among the hazard factors and to assess the relative importance of the hazard factors with Super Decision (SD) software. By constructing the "frequency-consequence-vulnerability" three-dimensional risk parameter model, the risk magnitude of shunting derailment could be obtained through risk aggregation process. Finally, the model was applied to the risk assessment of shunting derailment in Huangyangcheng station, the results revealed that this model was effective and efficient, which could yield more reliable and realistic solutions to the shunting safety.