Understanding Climate Variability in Northeastern Nigeria for Effective Photovoltaic Planning

Abstract

Information on spatial and temporal variation in climatic pattern is of prime importance for understanding the climate dynamics and prerequisite for preparation of strategies for photovoltaic system effective performance and efficiency. And for potential future planning as Nigeria is adopting PV. In this study, variability trend of four climate variables solar irradiance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity from six states of the Northeastern Nigeria (Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe) were analyzed using simple linear regression model from 1983 to 2022. The data were collected from the archive of Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET). The study found that the climate is undergoing significant changes, characterized by generally rising temperatures with approximate annual increase 0.046°C in Adamawa, 0.028°C in Borno and 0.061°C in Taraba, declining solar irradiance in the wetter climate states with trend line equation Y=-0.0217X in Taraba and rising solar irradiance in the drier climate states (Borno and Yobe) with trend line equation Y=0.02226X in Yobe, decreasing wind speeds in Borno, Gombe and Yobe, while stable wind speed in the remaining states. And reducing humidity generally except in Borno and Yobe where rising humidity observed. These trends were not uniform but exhibit a strong spatial signature across the six states, necessitating a localized rather than a one-size-fits-all approach to renewable energy policy and project development.