Geospatial Scenario Modeling with Cellular Automata: Land Use and Cover Change in Southern Maranhão, Brazilian Savanna (2020–2030)

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes driven by agricultural and livestock expansion pose significant threats to the Brazilian savanna (Cerrado). This study aimed to analyze, map, and simulate LULC changes in the southern mesoregion of Maranhão State by generating geospatial scenarios projected through 2030. LULC changes between 2015 and 2020 were analyzed using Landsat images classified with the Random Forest machine learning algorithm. A spatial model based on cellular automata was employed to simulate land use and land cover scenarios for the year 2030. When comparing the simulated map with the reference map, an overall accuracy of 70.28% and a Kappa index of 0.608 were observed. Results revealed a decrease in native savanna and grassland areas, with a corresponding increase in agricultural and pasturelands, notably in municipalities such as Balsas, Riachão, Tasso Fragoso, Carolina and Porto Franco. The 2030 simulation predicts continued agricultural expansion and a potential reduction of approximately 19% in native Cerrado vegetation cover, highlighting municipalities of Campestre do Maranhão, Porto Franco, São João do Paraíso, Feira Nova, Estreito, Balsas, Tasso Fragoso and Carolina. These findings underscore the value of integrating remote sensing and spatial modeling techniques within the framework of Geomatics to support environmental monitoring and management of land-use dynamics, including expansion, contraction, diversification, and agricultural intensification. This approach provides critical insights into anthropogenic impacts on sensitive ecosystems, informing sustainable planning in tropical savanna regions.