Assessing the Sustainability of the Consumption of Agricultural Products with Regard to a Possible Reduction in Its Imports: The Case of Countries That Import Corn and Wheat

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to develop and apply a toolkit for assessing the sustainability level of countries that import certain types of agricultural products with regard to a possible reduction in the volume of such imports. An indicator was proposed for evaluating sustainability. A model of its decomposition was built, which made it possible to reveal the hierarchy of factors of the formation of the specified sustainability. The concept of sustainable growth in consuming a certain agricultural product by a group of importing countries was developed. In particular, such growth conditions were formalized. Approbation of the formed methodological principles was carried out on two groups of countries that import corn and wheat. In particular, it was established that an increase in the relative vulnerability level of countries to a reduction in imported food supplies is negatively correlated with an increase in the relative level of adaptation of countries to such a reduction. It was also found that as of 1 January 2023, the resistance level of the studied countries to a reduction in corn and wheat imports has significantly decreased. Proposals are developed to increase the resilience level of food-importing countries to possible disruptions in their import supplies.