Prognostic scores for predicting clinical outcomes in upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Abstract

Background and aims: This study aimed to determine the performance of AIMS65, Rockall score, and Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) in patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and to compare results between patients with nonvariceal UGIB (NVUGIB) and variceal UGIB (VUGIB). Methods: We conducted a single-center prospective cohort study between December 2021 and December 2022. A total of 400 patients who met the inclusion criteria were included in the study, out of which 232 patients (58%) had NVUGIB and 168 patients (42%) had VUGIB. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed for all outcomes for comparison. Results: Of the total of 400 patients with UGIB, 232 patients (58%) had NVUGIB, and 168 patients (42%) had VUGIB. The present study showed that GBS (AUROC 0.729, 95% CI: 0.598–0.859, p = 0.001) and RS (AUROC 0.693, 95% CI: 0.579–0.807, p = 0.005) but not AIMS65 (AUROC, 0.545, 95% CI: 0.412–0.679, p = 0.500) predicted in-hospital and overall 6-week mortality in patients with UGIB. All the three scores predicted need for blood transfusion and poor composite outcomes (p < 0.05). The need for endoscopic intervention was predicted by all the three scores in overall UGIB (OUGIB) patients (p < 0.05), only GBS and RS in NVUGIB patients (p < 0.05). Rebleeding was best predicated by RS in both OUGIB and NVUGIB patients (p < 0.05). None of the scores predicted the need for endoscopic intervention, rebleeding, need for surgical and radiological intervention, and composite outcomes in VUGIB patients (p > 0.05). Conclusions: GBS and RS were superior to AIMS65 in predicted in-hospital and overall 6-week mortality in all the three categories: OUGIB, NVUGIB, and VUGIB patients.