Exploring crime through physical and social neighborhood factors: Greenspace and social disconnection in Los Angeles

Abstract

Purpose: This study examines how crime varies across Los Angeles census tracts, emphasizing two key neighborhood characteristics: (1) greenspace as a feature of the physical environment and (2) social disconnection as a measure of resident interaction. Methods: We employ negative binomial regression models to assess the effects of greenspace and social disconnection on violent and property crime. Greenspace is measured using two indicators: the percentage of tree canopy and the percentage of grass within census tracts. These measures are analyzed alongside social disconnection and additional neighborhood characteristics. Results: Findings indicate that both tree canopy and grass are associated with lower counts of violent and property crimes. In contrast, social disconnection does not demonstrate a significant relationship with either crime outcome. Additionally, the crime-reducing effect of tree canopy is most pronounced in neighborhoods with high levels of poverty, highlighting the role of socioeconomic conditions in shaping its impact. Conclusion: The findings support routine activities theory and opportunity perspectives, as greenspace effects—most notably for tree canopy—were not only statistically significant but also substantial compared to other common predictors of crime. Given its crime-reducing potential, policymakers may consider greenspace as a strategy for “designing out crime” through urban planning.