A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission between frontliners and the general public

Abstract

The number of COVID-19 cases is continuously increasing in different countries including the Philippines. It is estimated that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 is around 1.5–4 (as of May 2020). The basic reproduction number characterizes the average number of persons that a primary case can directly infect in a population full of susceptible individuals. However, there can be superspreaders that can infect more than this estimated basic reproduction number. In this study, we formulate a conceptual mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 between the frontliners and the general public. We assume that the general public has a reproduction number between 1.5 and 4, and frontliners (e.g. healthcare workers, customer service and retail personnel, food service crews, and transport or delivery workers) have a higher reproduction number. Our simulations show that both the frontliners and the general public should be protected against the disease. Protecting only the frontliners will not result in flattening the epidemic curve. Protecting only the general public may flatten the epidemic curve but the infection risk faced by the frontliners is still high, which may eventually affect their work. The insights from our model remind us of the importance of community effort in controlling the transmission of the disease.