Sustainability Assessment of Brown Trout Populations in Serbia (Central Balkans) Using the Modified ESHIPPO Model

Abstract

In the inland waters of the Balkans, many brown trout populations have been severely depleted. Therefore, identifying potential threats to their continued survival and ranking populations based on their biological and evolutionary importance enables setting conservation priorities. To assess the sustainability of the brown trout populations in the territory of Serbia (central Balkans), a modification of the ESHIPPO model was performed. The main modification involves incorporating the investigated populations’ genetic structure into the model. Therefore, the new ESHIPPOsalmo model includes an analysis of biological parameters and the impact of multiple factors, including habitat alterations, invasive species, pollution, human population growth, and over-exploitation. In order to investigate individual levels of influence of the model’s analyzed parameters, a combination of supervised and unsupervised machine learning methods was used. The structure of the model is based on general and easily measurable indicators, which enables its application in any salmonid river in the world. By evaluating the parameters of the ESHIPPOsalmo model, we were able to establish that, of the analyzed populations from 46 localities, 37% have a moderate level of sustainability, 43% low, and 20% critically low.