Navigating the Foreign Policy in Cyber Landscape: A Novel Model for State Decision-Making in Cyberspace

Abstract

This study examines the interplay between cyberspace and traditional foreign policy, addressing two key questions: (1) How does cyberspace influence foreign policy decision-making? and (2) What framework can integrate factors from real and cyber politics to guide leaders during conflicts? Using a rationalist lens, this study proposes a model centered on leadership, emphasizing two variables: perceived hostility and balance of power dynamics. The model categorizes state-led cyber actions into three levels—cyber espionage, destabilization, and conflict—based on attribution risks and geopolitical conditions. Empirical analyses of cases such as Stuxnet, Russia-Ukraine, and U.S.-China cyber activities demonstrate how leaders rationally select cyber actions to navigate complex geopolitical and cyber landscapes. This research advances our understanding of cyber-enabled statecraft and offers a structured framework for policymakers to address emerging challenges in the digital age.