The effect of age on thoroughbred racing performance

Abstract

Using a dataset of 274 male Thoroughbred racehorses in the United States, we study the effect of age on racing performance. Beyer speed figures, which are uniform measures of racing performance across distance and racing surface, are utilized in this study. A system of equations is estimated to determine quadratic improvement and decline in racing performance. We find that a typical horse's peak racing age is 4.45 years. The rate of improvement from age 2 to 41/2 is greater than the rate of decline after age 41/2. A typical horse will improve by 10 (horse) lengths in sprints (less than 1 mile) and 15 lengths in routes (one mile or greater) from age 2 to 41/2. Over the next five years the typical decline is 6 lengths for sprints and 91/2 lengths for routes.