Can the Wolf (Canis lupus) Thrive in Highly Anthropised Lowlands? First Habitat Suitability Analysis of the Po Plain, Italy

Abstract

Coexisting with large carnivores in human-dominated European landscapes is a highly relevant and current challenge. Over the last two centuries, the wolf (Canis lupus) population in Europe has experienced a significant decline, primarily due to direct human persecution. However, recent conservation policies, combined with the species’ remarkable ecological flexibility, have enabled a rapid recovery. This process, which now also extends to densely populated areas, is exemplified by the ongoing expansion across the Po Plain, one of Europe’s most heavily human-dominated landscapes. Our study aims to provide the first assessment of habitat suitability for wolf presence in the Po Plain. Using a ten-year dataset of wolf occurrences (2015–2024), we evaluated the influence of several environmental and human-related factors by applying habitat suitability models with the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The goal was to quantify potentially suitable habitats within the plain and to identify the factors that could either facilitate or constrain wolf presence. The results showed that approximately half of the Po Plain is suitable for wolf presence. Among anthropogenic variables, “urban areas” was the only factor that significantly and negatively affected habitat suitability, while other variables had negligible impacts. This underscores the species’ remarkable ecological and behavioural adaptability. By investigating wolf distribution in one of Europe’s most anthropised regions, this study aims to shed light on the species’ ability to thrive in human-altered landscapes, contributing to ongoing conservation efforts and informing future strategies for coexistence in highly populated lowland ecosystems.