Multi-Criteria Future Energy System Planning and Analysis for Hot Arid Areas of Iran

Abstract

An increase in energy demand in the coming years is inevitable, and therefore it is necessary to provide optimal solutions for this future need. This paper examines the future energy demands of the southern regions of Iran (with a hot and dry climate and high energy needs). In this regard, the overall structure of the research has been divided into three parts. In the first part, using historical energy consumption data, the energy demand in 2030 is predicted. This is carried out utilizing a time series analysis method, namely Holt–Winters. Then, relying on the plans of the Iran Ministry of Energy, various energy plans have been designed and energy modeling has been carried out for both base and forecast years. Finally, regarding a multi-criteria decision-making approach, energy plans are ranked and the best scenarios are selected and analyzed. The results of modeling and multi-criteria analysis showed that comprehensive and simultaneous development in the construction of thermal and renewable power plants is the best option to meet future energy needs.