China–India hydropolitics on the Brahmaputra: why do hard data need to dominate over existing rhetoric?

Abstract

This paper argues that hard data, rather than perception-based rhetoric, should drive hydropolitical engagements over transboundary waters. To do so, the paper talks of the China–India hydropolitics on the Brahmaputra River, assessing the proposition of Chinese interventions’ substantial negative impacts on downstream economies of the Brahmaputra system and the effectiveness of China–India Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on data-sharing. The paper analyses hydro-meteorological data, to challenge the hypothesis, and questions the MoU’s efficacy due to the incorrect choices of hydrological stations. Finally, the paper discusses emerging concerns downstream in light of existing hydro-meteorological realities and the uncertainty unleashed by climate change.