Stochastic representation of fire behavior in a wildland fire protection planning model for California

Abstract

A fire behavior module was developed for the California Fire Economics Simulator version 2 (CFES2), a stochastic simulation model of initial attack on wildland fire used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Fire rate of spread (ROS) and fire dispatch level (FDL) for simulated fires 'occurring' on the same day are determined by making coordinated draws from compound distributions characterizing 2 PM fire behavior indices such as ROS, then adjusting these draws using diurnal adjustment coefficients derived from hourly fire weather observations. Statistical examination of historical fire occurrence and predicted behavior data validated CFES2's use of independent fire occurrence and fire behavior modeling processes.