Occult cirrhosis diagnosed by transient elastography is a frequent and under-monitored clinical entity

Abstract

Background & Aims: Diagnosis of preclinical compensated cirrhosis (occult cirrhosis, OC) is challenging due to lack of clinical findings. We evaluated prevalence and outcomes of OC by transient elastography (TE, Fibroscan®). Methods: Eight hundred and seventy-one patients with compensated chronic liver disease (CLD) and TE examination were divided into: (i) OC (TE ≥ 13 kPa and no sign of cirrhosis, including absence of thrombocytopenia and signs of advanced liver disease on ultrasound or gastroscopy); (ii) clinically evident cirrhosis (TE ≥ 13 kPa with signs of cirrhosis); (iii) non-cirrhotic CLD (TE < 13 kPa). Outcomes included hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), esophageal varices and ascites. Late diagnosis of outcomes was defined as HCC stage ≥intermediate by BCLC or variceal bleeding. Results: Occult cirrhosis represented 12% of the cohort and 37% of cirrhotic patients. Independent predictors of OC were age [odds ratio (OR) 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.04-1.26], HIV co-infection (OR 3.53; 95% CI, 1.85-6.76) and APRI (OR 2.63; 95 CI, 1.87-3.71). During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range 20-37) months, OC received less surveillance than clinically evident cirrhosis, with fewer ultrasounds (2.7 ± 1.5 vs 3.6 ± 2; P < 0.001) and gastroscopies (2 ± 0.8 vs 2.6 ± 1.4; P < 0.001). Incidence of outcomes was 3.5/100 per person-years (PY) (95% CI, 0.1-6.9) in OC, 0 in non-cirrhotic CLD and 9.8/100 PY (95% CI, 0.3-19.3) in clinically evident cirrhosis (P < 0.001). Late diagnosis occurred more in OC than clinically evident cirrhosis (60 vs 15%, P = 0.01). Conclusions: Occult cirrhosis is a frequent and under-monitored clinical entity associated with short-term risk of outcomes. TE may help early diagnosis, prompt initiation of surveillance and specific therapy for an otherwise unrecognized condition.