Black in-migration, white flight, and the changing economic base of the central city.

Abstract

Postwar declines in the economic bases of large older cities have been linked, in part, to the increasing share of low-income minorities in their residential populations. Since the groundwork for these changes was laid by decades of black cityward migration from the South and a substantial suburbanward movement of city whites during the immediate postwar years, policymakers are now becoming concerned with the race-migration consequences of proposed urban programs-though often on the basis of little empirical evidence. This analysis employs data from several census sources to estimate the aggregate consequences of race-specific movement streams on the residential economic bases of 12 large central cities during two postwar intervals. Decrease in city revenue-producing capacity directly attributable to both black in-migration and white flight are found not to be large in either the late 1950s or late 1960s, and, owing to changes in the volume and selectivity of movement, the adverse effects of both streams appear to be decreasing over time. In contrast, the nonmigrating black residential population has increased its influence on the demographic and economic structures in most of these cities. - Author