Sea level in the late Quaternary: Patterns of variation and implications

Abstract

Studies of oxygen isotopes in foraminifers from deepsea sediments yield information about rates of change of sea level, for hundreds of thousands of years with a resolution of roughly 1,000 years. The statistics regarding fluctuations for the late Quaternary (the last 900,000 years) suggest that a rise of 10 m per 1,000 years (1 m per century) is not unusual, even when the system resides within a warm stage, as now. Values near 2 m per century, while rare, are well within the range of a warm system, beyond the 5-percentile of the overall range. Once sea level is near +10 m, further rise becomes highly unlikely within the conditions of the late Quaternary, suggesting the presence of some kind of natural barrier; that is, lack of vulnerable ice. The present volume of ice generally considered vulnerable (Greenland and West-Antarctic ice sheet) adds up (roughly) to the observed limit. © The Author(s) 2008.