Models to Analyze Risk in Time and Cost Estimation of Tunneling Projects

Abstract

Time and cost estimation of tunneling projects is usually performed in a deterministic manner. However, because the deterministic approach is not capable of dealing with uncertainty, probabilistic methods have been developed over the years to better account for this problem. Three models of this type are the Decision Aids for Tunneling (DAT) and two models developed at KTH Royal Institute of Technology and the Czech Technical University in Prague. To conduct a probabilistic time and cost estimation, it is important to understand and account for not only the uncertain factors that affect the project time and cost but also the involved parties’ different interests and contractual responsibilities. This paper develops a risk model for the specific purpose of time and cost estimation of tunneling projects. In light of this model, the practical application of the three probabilistic models is discussed from a risk-aware decision-maker’s perspective. The acquired insights can be helpful in increasing the experts’ risk-awareness in modeling time and cost of tunneling projects.