An extreme value model for maximum wave heights based on weather types

Abstract

Extreme wave heights are climate-related events. Therefore, special attention should be given to the large-scale weather patterns responsible for wave generation in order to properly understand wave climate variability. We propose a classification of weather patterns to statistically downscale daily significant wave height maxima to a local area of interest. The time-dependent statistical model obtained here is based on the convolution of the stationary extreme value model associated to each weather type. The interdaily dependence is treated by a climate-related extremal index. The model's ability to reproduce different time scales (daily, seasonal, and interannual) is presented by means of its application to three locations in the North Atlantic: Mayo (Ireland), La Palma Island, and Coruña (Spain).