SP-Transformer: A Medium- and Long-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Model Integrating Multi-Source Spatiotemporal Features

Abstract

Aiming to solve the challenges of the weak spatial and temporal correlation of medium- and long-term photovoltaic (PV) power data, as well as data redundancy and low forecasting efficiency brought about by long-time forecasting, this paper proposes a medium- and long-term PV power forecasting method based on the Transformer, SP-Transformer (spatiotemporal probsparse transformer), which aims to effectively capture the spatiotemporal correlation between meteorological and geographical elements and PV power. The method embeds the geographic location information of PV sites into the model through spatiotemporal positional encoding and designs a spatiotemporal probsparse self-attention mechanism, which reduces model complexity while allowing the model to better capture the spatiotemporal correlation between input data. To further enhance the model’s ability to capture and generalize potential patterns in complex PV power data, this paper proposes a feature pyramid self-attention distillation module to ensure the accuracy and robustness of the model in long-term forecasting tasks. The SP-Transformer model performs well in the PV power forecasting task, with a medium-term (48 h) forecasting accuracy of 93.8% and a long-term (336 h) forecasting accuracy of 90.4%, both of which are better than all the comparative algorithms involved in the experiment.