ON THE PERFORMANCE OF SARIMA AND SARIMAX MODEL IN FORECASTING MONTHLY AVERAGE RAINFALL IN KOGI STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Forecasting monthly rainfall is very important in Kogi state for better approach to flood management and also plays a pivotal role in agriculture which remains a significant factor in Nigeria’s economy.  Advanced time series univariate models such as Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models are usually employed in modelling and forecasting rainfall in Nigeria due to their non-linear pattern and spatiotemporal variation. Few studies have attempted to investigate the influence of other climatic factors in modelling and prediction of rainfall pattern. This study examines the performance of a univariate seasonal ARIMA and seasonal ARIMA which uses monthly temperature and relative humidity as exogenous factors otherwise known as SARIMAX model in forecasting monthly average rainfall in Lokoja, the capital of Kogi state. The study uses monthly data on rainfall, temperature and relative humidity spanning from 2010 to 2022 obtained from Nigeria Meteorological Agency NiMet, Lokoja station. The series were appropriately differenced to attain stationarity. The plots of autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) were used to select some tentative models whose parameters would be estimated. The most suitable SARIMA model  [SARIMA  was chosen based on maximum Coefficient of Determination  , and the minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC). However, SARIMAX model outperformed SARIMA model based on the criteria earlier highlighted. SARIMAX model was therefore recommended for modelling and forecasting monthly average rainfall in Kogi state.