Verification of Prognostic Charts

Abstract

Desirable characteristics of a system for scoring prognostic charts are discussed. A successful system now in use at the WBAN Analysis Center is described in detail. The preliminary score produced is a function of the pressure difference between pairs of stations over the area of the chart. A secondary score, the deviation from a running mean of daily scores adjusted by handicaps assigned to the individual forecasters, is a measure of forecasting skill relatively independent of many spurious effects. The slowly varying handicap is a useful means of ranking the ability of the forecasters.