Partial Budget Model for Reproductive Programs of Dairy Farm Businesses

Abstract

A partial budget model was developed to investigate the economic impact of management changes for the reproductive program of dairy farm businesses. The model is unique because 1) the herd is split into groups for first lactation and second or greater lactation; 2) each group's days open distribution is employed; 3) a lactation curve simulation is used to estimate a weighted average daily milk production; 4) the current days open distribution is altered by estimating changes in days to first AI, efficiency of estrus detection, and conception rate for the two lactation groups to predict the altered distribution of days open; and 5) the model provides a structure to estimate changes in expenses for labor, feed, supplies and services, and replacement heifers that may occur with the suggested management plan. A microcomputer program was designed based on the partial budget model to support decision making on the dairy farm pertaining to suggested management changes in the reproductive program. When applied to specific case farms, the results of the model indicate that, with improved reproductive efficiency of the milking group, the replacement population increases, and strategies may be required to manage an increased number of replacements. Sensitivity analysis was performed on milk price, feed, and replacement expenses. The case study results indicate that milk price and expenses of raising replacements may have the greatest impact within the partial budget model. © 1994, American Dairy Science Association. All rights reserved.