Machine learning enables prediction of cardiac amyloidosis by routine laboratory parameters: A proof-of-concept study

Abstract

(1) Background: Cardiac amyloidosis (CA) is a rare and complex condition with poor prognosis. While novel therapies improve outcomes, many affected individuals remain undiagnosed due to a lack of awareness among clinicians. This study was undertaken to develop an expert-independent machine learning (ML) prediction model for CA relying on routinely determined laboratory parameters. (2) Methods: In a first step, we developed baseline linear models based on logistic regression. In a second step, we used an ML algorithm based on gradient tree boosting to improve our linear prediction model, and to perform non-linear prediction. Then, we compared the performance of all diagnostic algorithms. All prediction models were developed on a training cohort, consisting of patients with proven CA (positive cases, n = 121) and amyloidosis-unrelated heart failure (HF) patients (negative cases, n = 415). Performances of all prediction models were evaluated on a separate prognostic validation cohort with 37 CA-positive and 124 CA-negative patients. (3) Results: Our best model, based on gradient-boosted ensembles of decision trees, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) score of 0.86, with sensitivity and specificity of 89.2% and 78.2%, respectively. The best linear model had an ROC AUC score of 0.75, with sensitivity and specificity of 84.6 and 71.7, respectively. (4) Conclusions: Our work demonstrates that ML makes it possible to utilize basic laboratory parameters to generate a distinct CA-related HF profile compared with CA-unrelated HF patients. This proof-of-concept study opens a potential new avenue in the diagnostic workup of CA and may assist physicians in clinical reasoning.