Influence of the multidecadal Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability on European climate

Abstract

The influence of the natural multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) on European climate is investigated using a simulation with the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM). The results show that Atlantic MOC fluctuations, which go along with changes in the northward heat transport, in turn affect European climate. Additionally, ensemble predictability experiments with ECHAM5/MPI-OM show that the probability density functions of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic/European region are affected by the multidecadal variability of the large-scale oceanic circulation. Thus, some useful decadal predictability may exist in the Atlantic/European sector. © 2006 American Meteorological Society.