Delay recovery model for high-speed trains with compressed train dwell time and running time

Abstract

Modeling the application of train operation adjustment actions to recover from delays is of great importance to supporting the decision-making of dispatchers. In this study, the effects of two train operation adjustment actions on train delay recovery were explored using train operation records from scheduled and actual train timetables. First, the modeling data were sorted to extract the possible influencing factors under two typical train operation adjustment actions, namely the compression of the train dwell time at stations and the compression of the train running time in sections. Stepwise regression methods were then employed to determine the importance of the influencing factors corresponding to the train delay recovery time, namely the delay time, the scheduled supplement time, the running interval, the occurrence time, and the place where the delay occurred, under the two train operation adjustment actions. Finally, the gradient-boosted regression tree (GBRT) algorithm was applied to construct a delay recovery model to predict the delay recovery effects of the train operation adjustment actions. A comparison of the prediction results of the GBRT model with those of a random forest model confirmed the better performance of the GBRT prediction model.