From single-issue to sustained Influence: factors driving the endurance of local political parties

Abstract

This study aims to advance the understanding of new political party longevity by examining an overlooked phenomenon: challengers formed exclusively to run for local elections (‘local parties’, ‘local lists’, or ‘independents’.) Drawing on original data and official election statistics, we analyse how formation patterns, issue scope, and governance participation affect their longevity. Our analyses reveal partly counterintuitive findings that somewhat challenge existing perspectives. First, we demonstrate that single-issue parties face distinct survival challenges, underscoring the importance of policy diversification–a dynamic previously unexplored in local party research. Second, we observe a stark contrast with national politics: local parties that gain governmental experience exhibit higher survival rates, contradicting the well-established ‘cost of ruling’ thesis. These findings advance theoretical insights into party evolution and offer empirically grounded guidance for emerging political organisations navigating strategic and structural challenges at the local level.