Association rule mining for south west monsoon rainfall prediction and estimation over Mumbai station

Abstract

Rainfall is important for agricultural yield and hence early prediction is required. It has a vital role in the improving the economy of a country. Accurate and timely weather prediction for rainfall forecasting has been one of the most challenging problems around the world as it changes the physical characteristics of the hydrologic system. Rainfall prediction model involves observation of weather data, deriving knowledge from it and implementing using computer models. The proposed work observed rainfall during south-west monsoon months of Mumbai (Latitude 19.0760°N/Longitude 72.8777°E) city. Predictive Apriori Algorithm was used to derive association rules for spot prediction, 24 hours ahead prediction and 48 hours ahead prediction, also to estimate a no rain day, moderate rain day and heavy rain day.