Comparing the transition from fossil fuels to green energy in the United States and Africa

Abstract

Previous studies have rarely evaluated the effectiveness of the Power Africa policy. This study applies a three-dimensional Lotka-Volterra model to assess the short-term substitution of green energy for fossil fuels. Equilibrium analysis is used to compare the future trajectory predictions of green energy between Africa and the United States to identify what Africa needs to improve. We find that fossil fuel utilization leads to an increase in nuclear energy consumption in both the United States and Africa. Both regions replace fossil fuels with alternative clean energy sources during periods of inadequate electricity supply. Renewable and nuclear energy exhibit distinct relationship trends in the two regions. For the circular economy-based United States, renewable energy usage increases alongside nuclear energy. The United States tends to supplement power generation with renewable energy when nuclear power is insufficient. Conversely, in the linear economy-based Africa, renewable energy usage decreases as nuclear energy usage increases. This contrast highlights that the United States protects the environment by mitigating potential harm from nuclear waste and radiation. The equilibrium analysis results show a lower equilibrium ratio of green energy to fossil fuels in Africa than in the United States, since Africa lacks a stable circular economy system. The consumption of fossil fuels and nuclear energy in the United States ultimately decreases at specific equilibrium levels, indicative of restructuring the economy in an environmentally sustainable manner. However, the energy consumption of low-cost fossil fuels is predicted to increase in Africa. Implicitly, Africa should improve to develop more green power capacity.