Analisis PDB Riil Indonesia Ditinjau dari Potensi Ekspor Non Migas

Abstract

The aim of this research is to investigate the influence of Non-Oil and Gas Export GDP, Service Export GDP on the Real GDP in Indonesia in a reciprocal manner. Additionally, it seeks to understand the reactions of these three variables in the presence of shocks along with their contributions. The model employed utilizes Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with data processing methods involving several steps, namely: Stationarity Test, Optimal Lag Test, Stability Test, Cointegration Test, Causality Test, VECM model analysis, Impulse Response Analysis, and Variance Decomposition Analysis. The research results indicate that the three variables have a stable and reciprocal long-term relationship with Real GDP as a significant dependent variable. Real GDP is influenced by Non-Oil and Gas Export GDP and Service Export GDP by 79.4% and 20.6%, respectively, with the remaining percentage attributed to unexamined variables. This study is essential for providing a comprehensive overview of the non-oil and gas export strength in Indonesia concerning Real GDP and is capable of predicting Real GDP when facing disturbances.