Climate change and water resources management in the coastal sub-basin of El Jadida Safi, Morocco

Abstract

According to the 5th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emissions scenarios while precipitation will likely decrease, thus reducing renewable surface water and groundwater resources in most dry subtropical regions such as Morocco. Moreover, most projections of global circulation models predict a dryer future for North African countries. This work aims to assess the impact of climate variability on water resources in the coastal sub-basin of El Jadida-Safi, located in the Oum Er-Rbia basin. In order to determine future climate projections in the coastal sub-basin by the year 2099, we are using SDSM, a statistical downscaling tool based on both observed and anthropogenic emission scenario data for the pessimistic scenario RCP 8.5 and the optimistic scenario RCP 4.5. Results will help decision-makers and stakeholders better manage their water resources, prepare for extreme hydrological hazards, and enhance development planning in the river basin.