Changes in Vegetation Period Length in Slovakia under the Conditions of Climate Change for 1931–2110

Abstract

The global mean near-surface temperature between 2012 and 2021 was 1.11 to 1.14 °C warmer than the pre-industrial level. This makes it the warmest period on record. The aim of this article was to investigate vegetation period changes (onset and termination of the temperature T ≥ 5 °C, T ≥ 10 °C, and T ≥ 15 °C) due to climate change from the average air temperature for the periods 1931–1961, 1961–1991, and 1991–2020 for 24 stations in Slovakia and forecast the length of vegetation periods for the periods 2021–2050, 2051–2080, and 2081–2110. The number of days with these characteristic temperatures was used as an input dataset, from which map outputs were generated in ArcGIS software. Spatial analysis of the vegetation periods in the past, present, and future showed an earlier start of the vegetation period in spring and a later ending in autumn during the last 30 years. The maximum duration of the vegetation period will expand from the south to the north of Slovakia. Future scenarios showed an extension of the vegetation period duration. On the other hand, this potential advantage for crop cultivation is limited by a lack of arable land in the north of Slovakia and by a lack of precipitation in the south of Slovakia.