Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 August

Abstract

Predictors include June-July meteorological information of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), West African rainfall, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as sea level pressure anomalies (SLPA), and the upper-tropospheric zonal-wind anomalies (ZWA) in the Caribbean basin. Use of a combination of these global and regional predictors provides a basis for making cross-validated (jackknifed) 1 August hindcasts of subsequent Atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone activity that show substantial skill over climatology. This relationship is demonstrated in 41 years of hindcasts of the 1950-90 seasons. -from Authors