Effects of probabilistic independent outcomes upon predictions

Abstract

Ss won or lost 10 cents for correct and incorrect predictions of draws from binary packs. The draws also had independent outcome values (IO’s) that depended upon the cards drawn but not upon the predictions. These IO’s were probabilistic, with expected values ranging from 10 cents to −10 cents. Cards with positive IO were predicted significantly more often than cards with negative IO, with objective probability constant. © 1966, Psychonomic Press. All rights reserved.