Personalized Course Recommendations Leveraging Machine and Transfer Learning Toward Improved Student Outcomes

Abstract

University advising at matriculation must operate under strict information constraints, typically without any post-enrolment interaction history.We present a unified, leakage-free pipeline for predicting early dropout risk and generating cold-start programme recommendations from pre-enrolment signals alone, with an optional early-warning variant incorporating first-term academic aggregates. The approach instantiates lightweight multimodal architectures: tabular RNNs, DistilBERT encoders for compact profile sentences, and a cross-attention fusion module evaluated end-to-end on a public benchmark (UCI id 697; n = 3630 students across 17 programmes). For dropout, fusing text with numerics yields the strongest thresholded performance (Hybrid RNN–DistilBERT: f1-score ≈ 0.9161, MCC ≈ 0.7750, and simple ensembling modestly improves threshold-free discrimination (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC) up to ≈0.9488). A text-only branch markedly underperforms, indicating that numeric demographics and early curricular aggregates carry the dominant signal at this horizon. For programme recommendation, pre-enrolment demographics alone support actionable rankings (Demographic Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP): Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain @ 10 (NDCG@10) ≈ 0.5793, Top-10 ≈ 0.9380, exceeding a popularity prior by (Formula presented.) percentage points in NDCG@10); adding text offers marginal gains in hit rate but not in NDCG on this cohort. Methodologically, we enforce leakage guards, deterministic preprocessing, stratified splits, and comprehensive metrics, enabling reproducibility on non-proprietary data. Practically, the pipeline supports orientation-time triage (high-recall early-warning) and shortlist generation for programme selection. The results position matriculation-time advising as a joint prediction–recommendation problem solvable with carefully engineered pre-enrolment views and lightweight multimodal models, without reliance on historical interactions.