Stochastically driven transitions between climate attractors

Abstract

The classical non-linear climatic model previously developed by Saltzman with co-authors and Nicolis is analysed in both the deterministic and stochastic cases in a wider domain of system parameters. A detailed analysis of the deterministic model shows a co-existence of a stable cycle and equilibrium phase points of the climate system localisation. A fine structure of attraction basins existing around stable equilibria is studied. The model under consideration possesses the noise-induced transitions between possible system attractors (limit cycle and two equilibria) in the case of stochastic dynamics caused by temperature fluctuations. A new phenomenon of stochastic generation of large amplitude oscillations around two equilibrium points in the absence of a limit cycle is revealed. The co-existence of large-, small- and mixed-mode stochastic transitions between the climate system attractors is found. © 2014 D. V. Alexandrov et al.