Advancing the Evidence Base of Future Warming Impacts on Human Mobility in African Drylands

Abstract

A better understanding of climate change impacts and resulting human responses (climate-related human mobility) have been identified as a research priority by the climate science community. Here, we provide the basis for future research efforts by identifying knowledge gaps and consolidating published evidence in the IPCC 1.5 Special Report (SR15) with recent evidence from climate science and the literature on human mobility in African drylands, a region where migrants are particularly vulnerable to climate change. We first synthesize climatic changes and their projected impacts across the region to then contextualize the projected impacts with current knowledge regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on human mobility. We discuss these often indirect impact channels and argue that a systems approach is needed to address the interconnectedness of climate impacts and the cascading risks of adverse consequences for human mobility.