Persistence time of SIS infections in heterogeneous populations and networks

Abstract

For a susceptible–infectious–susceptible infection model in a heterogeneous population, we present simple formulae giving the leading-order asymptotic (large population) behaviour of the mean persistence time, from an endemic state to extinction of infection. Our model may be interpreted as describing an infection spreading through either (1) a population with heterogeneity in individuals’ susceptibility and/or infectiousness; or (2) a heterogeneous directed network. Using our asymptotic formulae, we show that such heterogeneity can only reduce (to leading order) the mean persistence time compared to a corresponding homogeneous population, and that the greater the degree of heterogeneity, the more quickly infection will die out.