Current and future burden of obesity at the Hungarian Roma population I

Abstract

Introduction: The Roma population rapidly gains in importance in the social structure of Hungary. An adverse consequence of the multiple disadvantageous position of this minority is the unhealthy nutrition, which leads to obesity and high prevalence of its co-diseases. Aim: Based on primer anthropometric data collection, we will determine the nutritional status of the Hungarian Roma population, then on the basis of official statistical data, an estimation and prognoses will be prepared on the disease burden of obesity according to genders and age. Method: A long-range forecast of the population size of the Roma minority’s prognosis has been prepared on the basis of official statistics and time-series by Spectrum 5.0 demographic software. On this basis, applying the Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment software, we have prepared a forecast for the incidence and prevalence of the most important diseases attributable to obesity. Results: In the next decades, the number of the Roma population will be doubled, but there is a high level of uncertainty of different forecasts. The nutritional status of the Hungarian roma population is less favorable, than the indicators, characterizing the Hungarian population as a whole. In the next half a century, the prevalence of co-morbid-ities of obesity will be increasing from 6 thousand up to 26 thousand in the case of women, while in the case of men from nearly 6 thousand up to 17 thousand. Conclusions: The rapidly increasing number of the Roma population is an increasing challenge for the Hungarian healthcare system, which highlights the importance of evidence-based prevention and intervention programs.